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The Global Seismic Monitoring and Risk Assessment System (GMRA-v1.0) is a predictive model for seismic and volcanic monitoring. The program's algorithms utilize machine learning and the statistical analysis of data from the ISC (International Seismological Centre), NASA, and astronomical events. Calculations apply the principles of orbital mechanics and historical seismological data (from 2011-01-01). The fundamental basis of the program is the Law of Conservation of Momentum.
Please note that GMRA-System v1.0 is an experimental test model. It serves as a data-driven sandbox for verifying geophysics theories and hypotheses. The probability scores are dynamically calibrated using 15 years of historical backtesting, allowing us to continuously adjust trigger weights and analyze the correlation between astronomical forces and seismic activity.
To maintain mathematical integrity and prevent data leakage, the predictive algorithm operates exclusively on completed 24-hour cycles. Therefore, the historical seismic window used for "Today's" forecast physically ends "Yesterday." While the global map visualizes recent earthquakes in real-time via USGS and EMSC feeds, the core predictive backend aggregates data and recalculates scoring weights only once daily. Transitioning to hourly forecasting intervals (a potential GMRA-System v2.0) would require a major architectural shift, multiplying the computational load and data volume.
Moon Phase and Libration (NASA)
International Seismological Centre
Euro-Mediterranean Centre (EMSC)
The forecasting API strictly isolates historical data from target prediction dates to prevent data leakage. When querying a specific date, the algorithm evaluates the tectonic stress accumulated exclusively over the preceding 3, 7, 14-day window (excluding the target date itself) and correlates it with future orbital triggers.
GET /api/analytics/forecast?date=YYYY-MM-DD
Files used in the project for predictive analytics (machine learning) on the start.
| Source | Format | Link | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISC / FDSNWS | CSV/TXT | Google Drive | 571Mb |
| NASA Lunar Data | JSON/TXT | Google Drive | 16,5Mb |
| GMRA-System | WEB | Mathematical Core |