≡ GMRA-System

Global Seismic Monitoring and Risk Assessment System
GLOBAL TENSION
--:--:--

Average depth (by Earth)

Global magnitude (sum M1+)

Moon: average speed (km/h)

Moon distance: 0
USGS Water Temperature
Firehole River (st: 06036905)
t --.--°C

Global levels

MODERATE 🟡 ELEVATED 🟠 EXTREME 🔴

About GMRA-System

Volcanoes & earthquakes ≥ М6

Today0%
Tomorrow0%
7 days0%

Active triggers

  • Waiting for data...

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About GMRA-System v1.0

The Global Seismic Monitoring and Risk Assessment System (GMRA-v1.0) is a predictive model for seismic and volcanic monitoring. The program's algorithms utilize machine learning and the statistical analysis of data from the ISC (International Seismological Centre), NASA, and astronomical events. Calculations apply the principles of orbital mechanics and historical seismological data (from 2011-01-01). The fundamental basis of the program is the Law of Conservation of Momentum.

Please note that GMRA-System v1.0 is an experimental test model. It serves as a data-driven sandbox for verifying geophysics theories and hypotheses. The probability scores are dynamically calibrated using 15 years of historical backtesting, allowing us to continuously adjust trigger weights and analyze the correlation between astronomical forces and seismic activity.

Data Processing & Daily Cycles

To maintain mathematical integrity and prevent data leakage, the predictive algorithm operates exclusively on completed 24-hour cycles. Therefore, the historical seismic window used for "Today's" forecast physically ends "Yesterday." While the global map visualizes recent earthquakes in real-time via USGS and EMSC feeds, the core predictive backend aggregates data and recalculates scoring weights only once daily. Transitioning to hourly forecasting intervals (a potential GMRA-System v2.0) would require a major architectural shift, multiplying the computational load and data volume.

Global Tension Levels

  • 🟡 MODERATE (0% - 55%): Moderate tension
  • 🟠 ELEVATED (55% - 75%): High probability
  • 🔴 EXTREME (75% - 100%): Critical alignment

System Triggers & Precursors

  • • Proximity to Earth's Apsides (Aphelion / Perihelion)
  • • Proximity to Equinoxes (Vernal / Autumnal)
  • • Lunar Orbital Speed Extremum (Perigee / Apogee Proximity)
  • • Lunar Acceleration Extremum (Peak Momentum Derivatives)
  • • Phase Shift of the Moon's Orbital Swept Area
  • • Linear & Monotonic Correlation (Pearson & Spearman): Magnitude vs. Depth
  • • Global Earthquake Depth Dispersion Anomaly (σ Deviation)
  • • b-value Anomaly (Gutenberg-Richter Law Stress Indicator)
  • • Accelerated Moment Release (AMR / Benioff's Energy Trend)
  • • Seismic Quiescence (Unnatural Benioff Energy Calm)
  • • ETAS Seismic Swarm (Event Count σ Anomaly)
  • • Temporal Seismic Gradient (3-Day Trend)

References

Moon Phase and Libration (NASA)

International Seismological Centre

Euro-Mediterranean Centre (EMSC)

U.S. Geological Survey

Data Access & API

The forecasting API strictly isolates historical data from target prediction dates to prevent data leakage. When querying a specific date, the algorithm evaluates the tectonic stress accumulated exclusively over the preceding 3, 7, 14-day window (excluding the target date itself) and correlates it with future orbital triggers.

GET /api/analytics/forecast?date=YYYY-MM-DD

Open Data Archives

Files used in the project for predictive analytics (machine learning) on the start.

Source Format Link Size
ISC / FDSNWS CSV/TXT Google Drive 571Mb
NASA Lunar Data JSON/TXT Google Drive 16,5Mb
GMRA-System WEB Mathematical Core

Idea and Development: Morgunovskiy V.V.
Developed with the assistance of Gemini AI
Email: